Gambler’s Fallacy

The vast majority of gamblers believe in “Gambler’s Fallacy” – you probably do too and the reason you lose at Roulette.  Gambler’s Fallacy is simply expecting a fixed odd, like a 50/50 coin flip, to change for some magical reason.

Let’s say you flip a coin and heads comes up 4 times in a row.  If you had to bet $100 dollars on the next coin flip would you:

1) Bet heads since there is a “trend” going on

2) Bet tails since tails is “over due”

Both reasons above are wrong, you fell for Gambler’s Fallacy – you expected the 50/50 fixed odds to change for some magical reason.  The past history of coin flips means nothing to the next flip – the odds are still 50% for heads and 50% for tails.

Sounds logical doesn’t it?  How about the following which happens to me all the time:

 

 So how would you bet $100?

1) Bet on Red since there is a trend going on

2) Bet on Black because it’s “over due” to show up

Both answers are wrong – that’s Gambler’s Fallacy.  The correct answer is there is a 18/38 chance of Red showing up, a 18/38 chance of Black showing up a 1/38 chance of 0 showing up and a 1/38 chance of 00 showing up.

Many Roulette systems have you wait until a trigger it hit – like 3 Reds in a row then bet Black – that’s Gambler’s Fallacy too.  Any system that has a trigger is built on Gambler’s Fallacy and will fail and you will lose money.

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