The vast majority of gamblers believe in “Gambler’s Fallacy” – you probably do too and the reason you lose at Roulette. Gambler’s Fallacy is simply expecting a fixed odd, like a 50/50 coin flip, to change for some magical reason.
Let’s say you flip a coin and heads comes up 4 times in a row. If you had to bet $100 dollars on the next coin flip would you:
1) Bet heads since there is a “trend” going on
2) Bet tails since tails is “over due”
Both reasons above are wrong, you fell for Gambler’s Fallacy – you expected the 50/50 fixed odds to change for some magical reason. The past history of coin flips means nothing to the next flip – the odds are still 50% for heads and 50% for tails.
Sounds logical doesn’t it? How about the following which happens to me all the time:
So how would you bet $100?
1) Bet on Red since there is a trend going on
2) Bet on Black because it’s “over due” to show up
Both answers are wrong – that’s Gambler’s Fallacy. The correct answer is there is a 18/38 chance of Red showing up, a 18/38 chance of Black showing up a 1/38 chance of 0 showing up and a 1/38 chance of 00 showing up.
Many Roulette systems have you wait until a trigger it hit – like 3 Reds in a row then bet Black – that’s Gambler’s Fallacy too. Any system that has a trigger is built on Gambler’s Fallacy and will fail and you will lose money.